Sadraddin Aghjayev
Euro weakens against the manat, dollar holds: what this means for contract currency
The official EUR/AZN rate fell from 1.9730 to 1.9242 over the month, while USD/AZN remained 1.7 three times. We examine why this matters for choosing the contract currency, not for forecasting prices.
Money base down, M2 up: what this means for business
In July 2026, the money base declined from June, while M2 and M0 rose. We examine why end-of-month stocks do not provide an unambiguous signal about monetary conditions.
Loans Grow Faster Than Deposits, but Are Getting More Expensive: The Decision Boundary for a Borrower
The outstanding stock of loans to the economy grew by about 12.9% over the year, deposits by 6.5%, and the average rate on manat loans rose to 15.74%. We examine why this is not a reason to expect an easing of conditions.
Oil and Gas in Exports: Value Is Visible, Dynamics Are Not
For January–August 2026, customs records 14.6779516 million tonnes of oil and 9281.89355 million dollars of its value, but without a comparison base this is a level, not a trend.
Investment grew by 10%: oil and gas and other sectors diverge
Oil and gas investment added 32.4%, non-oil and gas — 1.4%. Most of the money is still outside oil and gas, but the fastest growth is concentrated in it.
Azerbaijan's Deposits: Balance Growth Amid a Decline in the Foreign Currency Share
By the end of July 2026, Azerbaijan's deposit base reached 44,501.1 million manats, while the share of foreign currency deposits declined to 34.7% versus 38.2% a year earlier.
California Gasoline Hits Record Highs: Price per Liter Approaches $1.90
Average fuel prices in California rose 2.5–2.6% over the week, significantly exceeding the national average.
Oil in Azerbaijan's exports: the largest item, but not the entire export
For January–August 2026, the customs value of oil exports is 9281.9 million dollars, gas is 5710.9 million, total exports are 21815.0 million: oil is the largest item, but not the entire export.
Deposit Dollarization in Azerbaijan: Share Declines Against a Growing Base
At the end of July 2026, the share of foreign currency deposits was 34.715% with a total base of 44,501.149 million manats: the structure of the stock shifted, but the cause cannot be derived from these data.
Gas and oil: export value in different units of measurement
For January–August 2026, gas exports brought 5.71 billion dollars, oil exports — 9.28 billion. We break down what this means for business.
Surplus on Two Positions: What Azerbaijan's Customs Total Shows
For January–August 2026, Azerbaijan's positive foreign trade balance rests on two commodity positions, each of which is comparable in magnitude to total imports.
Oil and Gas in Exports: Two Lines, Two Dimensions
For January–August 2026, customs valued oil exports at 9281.9 million dollars and gas at 5710.9 million, with total exports of 21815.04 million US dollars.
CBA 28-day note yield rose to 6.56% with sterilization volume of 1,802.5 million manats
The auction on September 16, 2026 gave 6.56% versus 6.26% a week earlier and 5.63% at the end of July — the price of short liquidity in manats is again higher than in mid-summer.
Azerbaijan's Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate at 6.5%
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan left its policy rate unchanged at 6.5%, lowering the lower bound of the interest rate corridor to 5% while keeping the upper bound at 7.5%.
Non-oil and gas industry is growing faster than the entire non-oil economy
Industrial output added 5.4%, non-oil and gas GDP — 2.1%, investment — 1.4%. Why three positive indicators do not mean an equally broad upturn.
AZIR below the policy rate: what this means for short-term funding
The upper bound of the CBA corridor is 7.5%, the policy rate is 6.5%, and the one-day interbank AZIR rate had fallen to 5.8077% by September 17, 2026.
Euro weakens against the manat, dollar unchanged: what this means for the contract currency
Over the month, the official EUR/AZN rate fell from 1.9877 to 1.9507 manats, while USD/AZN on the same dates remained 1.7 — the movement came through the euro, not through the manat against the dollar.
Azerbaijan's economy grows by 1.2% — industries move in different directions
Rapid growth in communications and transport coexists with a decline in construction. Overall GDP hides different conditions for business, and industry percentages cannot be added together.
Credit More Expensive Than Deposits: What the Rate Gap in Manats Shows
The average manat rate on loans in August 2026 was 15.74%, on deposits — 9.12%. The gap persists, but by itself it proves neither a rise in funding costs nor an increase in margin.
Azerbaijan's Reserves: Why $90.8 Billion Is Not Only a CBA Indicator
The country's strategic reserves and the CBA's foreign exchange reserves have different coverage. We examine what a large stock says about the buffer — and what it does not promise business.
Deposit rate in manats: August pullback amid annual growth
The average manat deposit rate in August 2026 declined from July but remained above last year's level — this changes not the direction, but the sensitivity of the cost of funding.
CBA notes in circulation rose noticeably, while money market rates behaved differently
The outstanding balance of CBA notes in circulation rose from 483.8 million manats in June to 1802.5 million manats in September, while note yields and the interbank rate moved unevenly.
A surplus on two positions: what lies behind Azerbaijan's balance
The customs balance for January–August 2026 rests on oil and gas, whose value exceeds all imports — this narrows the base of the surplus.
Azerbaijan's Money Supply: Broad Aggregate Grows More Slowly Than Narrow One
M3 at the end of July 2026 was 53,925.49 million manats, 13.1% more than a year earlier. Over the same year M2 added 19.6%, and this changes the meaning of the observation.