After a change of government earlier this year, Venezuela's oil sector has shown impressive growth and is undergoing another round of liberalization. However, analysts believe that further growth will be slower and depends on new investments in drilling.
Oil production in Venezuela reached 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day in July (up 70–190 thousand barrels per day compared to Q4 2025). The recovery in production was accompanied by an increase in oil supplies, which in Q2 2026 amounted to 1.1 million barrels per day, exceeding the Q4 2025 level by 2.2 times.
The explosive growth in export supplies is linked to the sale of oil inventories that had accumulated during Q4 2025 amid the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil exports. The release of storage capacity allowed it to be refilled with new oil. Other growth factors include the rapid recovery of production at existing assets (as reservoirs were not damaged during the downtime) and increased imports of naphtha to prepare oil for export.
The main constraint is the shortage of drilling equipment—only two drilling rigs are operating in the country. Further increases in production could be supported by scaling up drilling operations and increasing imports of naphtha to dilute extra-heavy crude.
Experts conservatively assess the potential for further increases in oil production in Venezuela and expect it to remain near the current 1,150 thousand barrels per day until the end of 2027. A positive scenario of production growth to levels above 1.3 million barrels per day could require the launch of two additional drilling rigs and an increase in naphtha imports to 200 thousand barrels per day.