Foreign Affairs (FA) magazine has warned of the risk of a new global crisis due to China's growing overproduction. As noted in the publication's August 13 article, Beijing is increasing exports faster than global trade, while trade barriers are rising and demand for Chinese goods may become insufficient.
The Foreign Affairs article suggests that this situation could hit China's "export machine" and lead to large-scale consequences for the global economy. According to the magazine, the Chinese economy has become too large to continue increasing exports while simultaneously finding new markets.
In 2025, China's trade surplus reached nearly $1.2 trillion. Its growth was three times faster than the increase in global goods trade. According to data cited in the publication, China accounts for about 30% of global industrial production. According to a 2024 UN report, this figure could rise to 45% by 2030.
China calls on Western countries to view the growth of Chinese exports not as a threat to the global economy, but as new opportunities for development. In a report by China's Ministry of Commerce titled "China's Position on the So-Called Overcapacity Issue," it is noted that China has provided about 30% of global economic growth for over 10 years, remaining one of the key drivers of the global economy.