Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas sector generated 80.9% of the annual increase in tax receipts administered by the State Tax Service in January-October 2026. Oil and gas, however, accounted for 76.7% of receipts above plan. FinFly calculated these shares from the service's November 5 release.
Different comparison bases
Total receipts reached AZN 16,065.2 million, an increase of AZN 1,686.8 million from the first ten months of 2025. The non-oil and gas sector contributed AZN 1,364.6 million of that increase, equivalent to 80.9%.
The comparison with the forecast produces a different result. Overall receipts exceeded plan by AZN 1,274.2 million, including AZN 297.4 million from the non-oil and gas sector. The remaining AZN 976.8 million came from oil and gas, representing 76.7% of the total surplus over plan.
| Comparison | Non-oil and gas | Oil and gas |
|---|---|---|
| Share of annual growth | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| Share of receipts above plan | 23.3% | 76.7% |
Implications for budget analysis
The annual comparison identifies the sector contributing most to additional receipts. The comparison against plan measures deviations from a forecast. A strong non-oil contribution to annual growth can therefore coexist with oil and gas dominating the surplus over plan.
These figures alone do not establish why oil and gas receipts exceeded the forecast. That would require a breakdown by tax, payer and payment timing. Tax collection growth is also not a direct measure of real output growth.
Scope and method
The calculation covers State Tax Service receipts for matching ten-month periods. It does not represent total government revenue, including customs receipts and State Oil Fund transfers. Shares are rounded to one decimal place.