Azerbaijan’s government debt is projected to stand at approximately 20.4% of GDP by the end of 2030. The forecast for the end of 2026 is 19.5% of GDP.
Finance Minister Sahil Babayev outlined the projections during budget discussions on November 11, FinFly reports, citing local media. Both figures are corroborated by a Milli Majlis account of budget deliberations.
The debt portfolio
According to the figures presented by Babayev, domestic government debt amounts to AZN 16.2 billion and external government debt to AZN 7.7 billion. Together, they total approximately AZN 23.9 billion, with domestic obligations accounting for about 68%.
These amounts describe the current portfolio. They should not be read as the projected nominal debt stock at end-2030: the 20.4% forecast is expressed relative to future GDP.
Borrowing maturities and reserves
Babayev said the average maturity of bonds had reached 3.6 years, while seven-year and ten-year securities represented 44% of the portfolio. He said extending maturities was intended to support the management of market and liquidity risks.
Strategic foreign-exchange reserves stood at approximately USD 89.4 billion on October 1, 2026. This is a country-wide reserve measure, not just the Central Bank’s holdings. A comparison with external government debt requires both amounts to be expressed in the same currency.
The draft 2027 state budget provides AZN 2.2 billion for government debt service. Annual debt-service expenditure, the outstanding stock of obligations and debt as a share of GDP measure different aspects of the debt burden.
The end-2030 ratio remains a medium-term fiscal projection. It does not imply that the ratio will remain unchanged throughout the period.
