American intelligence believes that Iran has become more confident in its ability to strike targets in the Middle East and may escalate the conflict with the US in the coming months, The New York Times reports, citing informed sources.
According to officials familiar with the intelligence, after several months of a low-intensity war, Iran has a much better understanding of its military advantages and has become more confident in its ability to continue resisting the US. Based on incoming data, sources consider it unlikely that Iran is ready to reach any ceasefire agreement with Washington, preferring to exacerbate political problems for US President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections in the United States.
The publication notes that Trump is currently not negotiating and says he can apply economic pressure on Iran that would force Tehran to make concessions on control of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program. However, according to officials who have seen intelligence reports, in the short term, US economic sanctions are likely to continue provoking escalation.
According to American officials, in the coming weeks Tehran may take actions similar to those it took in July. At that time, Iran attacked US military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan, struck ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted infrastructure in Kuwait and other countries in the region.
"The Iranians believe their position is stronger because the previously fragmented leadership has become more cohesive and they still have stocks of missiles and drones," said Jason Crow, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee from Colorado.
Iran's leadership also appears to have a clearer understanding of how to control the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passed before the war, Crow said. "They always knew the strait was an important bargaining chip, but now they are more aware of the leverage it gives them," he noted.
Other sources familiar with the intelligence said Iran likely believes the US military will find it difficult to launch new major strikes because its ammunition stocks are depleting. According to the newspaper's interlocutors, there are signs that Iran intends to drag out the conflict at least until the midterm elections.
