European countries may face a diesel shortage and significant price increases this coming winter, Bloomberg reported on August 8, citing experts.
The report notes that Europe is particularly vulnerable to diesel supply disruptions due to limited refining capacity and high dependence on imports. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain an additional risk factor.
"Europe has a big problem with diesel. The situation will worsen: we are likely to see extremely high fixed prices," said Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at consulting firm FGE NexantECA.
According to his assessment, higher diesel prices could lead to increased transport costs and stronger inflationary pressure in European countries.
Bloomberg also points out that if geopolitical tensions persist, Asian and American refineries may cut diesel exports as winter approaches to meet domestic demand.
In particular, Zamir Yusof, head of clean refined products analytics at Kpler, noted that Gulf Coast refineries cannot sustain diesel supplies to Northwest Europe indefinitely. He believes that closer to the first quarter of 2027, some cargoes may be redirected to the U.S. East Coast to meet winter heating demand.
The situation in the global energy market is complicated by the Middle East crisis. According to Bloomberg, the conflict has effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and liquefied natural gas supplies from the Middle East.
Amid supply disruptions, fuel prices have risen in several countries. Some countries have also experienced problems with the availability of jet fuel.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data as of August 3, the fill level of underground gas storage (UGS) in Europe reached a record low for this time of year in early August. It was noted that the decline in gas volumes in European storage occurs against the backdrop of the need to replenish reserves before the upcoming heating season and ongoing volatility in the energy market.