The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with shifting geopolitical conditions, will have a long-term impact on global trade flows as companies seek to minimize the risks of new shocks.
According to FinFly, citing Reuters, this was stated by World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
According to her, the war with Iran caused a sharp decline in trade in the Middle East. The WTO forecasts that in 2026 exports in the region will decrease by 17%, while imports will fall by about 15%.
Okonjo-Iweala noted that after the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, trade flows are expected to recover. However, some alternative routes established during the conflict may remain in place permanently.
The WTO chief emphasized that amid geopolitical instability, armed conflicts and rising US tariffs, global supply chains are already being restructured, and companies continue to seek new trade routes despite higher costs, with trade diversification set to continue.
Earlier, the organization raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 from 1.9% to 3.9%, driven by increased demand for artificial intelligence-related products.
