Azerbaijan’s 2027 budget package forecasts AZN 1.42 billion in profit tax from Shah Deniz participants. That is AZN 180 million, or 11.3%, below the 2026 forecast.
The calculation assumes a 6.8% reduction in the European gas hub price, alongside 0.7% lower gas output and 1.7% lower condensate production compared with this year’s forecast.
Prices matter beyond production volumes
Profit tax reflects financial performance, so receipts can move differently from physical output. A larger reduction in the price assumption accompanies relatively modest volume changes here.
This comparison concerns two budget forecasts. The AZN 180 million difference is not an already recorded revenue shortfall.