The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its forecasts for global crude oil production in 2026 and 2027.
According to the October edition of the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, global crude oil production is expected to average 75.40 million barrels per day in 2026 and 81.50 million barrels per day in 2027.
In 2026, production will show quarterly fluctuations. It is projected to be 77.33 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 71.57 million in the second, 75.69 million in the third, and 77.02 million in the fourth.
Thus, in the second quarter of 2026, production will decline by 5.76 million barrels per day compared to the first quarter, before rising again. On an annual basis, global production in 2026 will be 3.69 million barrels per day, or about 4.7%, lower than in 2025 (79.09 million barrels per day).
In 2027, according to the forecast, global production is expected to grow: to 79.60 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 81.30 million in the second, 82.20 million in the third, and 82.86 million in the fourth. The annual average will be 81.50 million barrels, which is 6.10 million barrels per day, or 8.1%, higher than the 2026 forecast.
According to the report, total crude oil production by OPEC countries in 2026 will be 20.44 million barrels per day, which is 4.19 million barrels less than in 2025 (24.63 million). In 2027, OPEC production will rise to 24.42 million barrels per day.
OPEC+ production in 2026 will be 29.54 million barrels per day, compared to 33.33 million in 2025. For 2027, the EIA estimates OPEC+ production at 33.38 million barrels per day.
U.S. production is forecast to increase from 13.66 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.87 million in 2026 and to 14.38 million in 2027. In non-OPEC+ countries excluding the U.S., production will be 31.90 million barrels per day in 2026 and 33.81 million in 2027.
OPEC+ crude oil production capacity in 2026 is estimated to average 20.87 million barrels per day, and 26.07 million in 2027. Spare production capacity will be 0.44 million barrels in 2026 and 1.65 million in 2027.