The weakening of the ruble against major currencies in July was due both to the delayed effect of falling prices for commodity exports and to unusual behavior by some economic agents, according to a commentary from the Bank of Russia.
In July, the monthly average ruble exchange rate weakened by 5.8% against the US dollar, 4.6% against the euro, and 5.5% against the Chinese yuan.
"The main factor behind the ruble's weakening was the deterioration in trade conditions: in July, the effect of the June decline in the value of exports began to show with a lag. Additional pressure on the ruble came from demand from certain market participants who are usually net sellers of foreign currency," the central bank said in its commentary "Monetary Conditions and Transmission of Monetary Policy," published on Tuesday.
The real effective exchange rate (REER) of the ruble, calculated against the currencies of major trading partners, weakened by 2.9% month-on-month in July, according to preliminary data, after strengthening by 0.3% in June. At the same time, it remains above its multi-year median (+12.1% to the median from January 2015 to June 2026; for specific currency pairs - USD/RUB: +3.8%; EUR/RUB: +5.2%; CNY/RUB: +22.8%).