Russia's Fuel Problems Spill Beyond Domestic Market

Russian authorities have imposed a temporary ban on diesel exports until July 31. The restriction does not apply to supplies under intergovernmental agreements, but the decision itself is another confirmation of the tense situation on the market.

"The situation on the fuel market remains tense," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier.

According to Kpler, in June 2026, oil refining at Russian refineries fell to about 4.1 million barrels per day, the lowest level in recent years. Gasoline production was about 25 percent lower than a year earlier, while summer consumption exceeds output.

Russia remains a key supplier of gasoline to several Central Asian countries. In 2025, about 2.6 million tons of gasoline were exported by rail, of which 526,000 tons went to Kyrgyzstan, 510,000 tons to Uzbekistan, and 406,000 tons to Tajikistan. That is why the effects of the shortage spread so quickly across the region.

Kyrgyzstan: The Most Vulnerable Country

Kyrgyzstan remains the most vulnerable state in the region. More than 90% of the republic's imported gasoline comes from Russia.

In January–May 2026 alone, Russian supplies amounted to more than 251,000 tons of motor gasoline, 235,100 tons of diesel fuel, and 48,150 tons of aviation kerosene. For comparison, domestic production over the same period reached only 129,200 tons of gasoline and 118,200 tons of diesel, which is not yet enough to fully replace a possible reduction in imports.

At the end of June, the Association of Oil Traders of Kyrgyzstan reported a shortage of AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline due to limited supplies from Russia and seasonal demand growth.

The authorities have begun an urgent search for alternative sources. China has confirmed the supply of 3,000 tons of aviation fuel and is negotiating the supply of 5,000 tons of diesel. Belarus is preparing to supply another 3,000 tons of aviation fuel and about 10,000 tons of diesel.

"We expect deliveries from China within 10 days, from Belarus possibly within 15–20 days," said Daniyar Amangeldiev, First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan.

In addition, Kazakhstan is considering the possibility of exporting petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan, but the volumes of potential supplies are not yet comparable to those from Russia.

Uzbekistan: Record Price Rise Despite Reserves

In 2025, Uzbekistan received about 510,000 tons of gasoline from Russia. In January–April 2026, total imports reached 568,700 tons worth $327.1 million, more than double the figure for the same period last year.

At the same time, domestic production in January–May amounted to 502,200 tons of motor gasoline.

The main manifestation of the Russian crisis was a sharp rise in exchange prices. By June 29, the price of AI-92 on the Uzbek Republican Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange reached an all-time high of 13.919 million soums per ton. Over the month, gasoline rose by about 11.8 percent, with the sharpest jump occurring between June 4 and 8, when the price increased by 10.5 percent in just four days.

Despite this, the authorities emphasize that reserves are available.

"I can confidently say that our reserves are sufficient for the next two to three months," said Umid Mamadaminov, First Deputy Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan.

According to him, the volume of petroleum product production in the country exceeds 1.2 million tons, and private imports add another 600,000–700,000 tons, which covers domestic needs.

At the same time, the official acknowledged that the current geopolitical situation reinforces the importance of energy security and requires not only stockpiling but also expanding domestic production capacity.

Tajikistan: Diesel Shortage Already Felt at Gas Stations

Tajikistan imports about 84 percent of its petroleum products from Russia. In 2025, the republic imported more than 1.21 million tons of petroleum products worth about $959.3 million.

In early July 2026, local media reported a shortage of diesel fuel in Dushanbe and several regions. At some gas stations, sales were stopped; at others, restrictions of no more than 20 liters per customer were introduced.

The price of diesel reached 13.9–15.5 somoni per liter in the capital and about 15.6 somoni in some regions.

Tajikistan has begun negotiations with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and other potential suppliers of aviation fuel.

"We are currently receiving information about the location of fuel to conclude an agreement and organize its import," said Habibullo Nazarzoda, head of the Tajik Civil Aviation Agency.

According to him, Tajik fuel companies have been looking for alternative suppliers for about a week.

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan: Potential Donors for the Region

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have not yet faced domestic shortages of motor fuel.

Kazakhstan covers demand through its own refineries and has petroleum product reserves of over 1.1 million tons. However, the country is already feeling indirect pressure: cross-border consumption is growing, risks of gray fuel exports are increasing, and neighboring states are requesting additional supplies.

Turkmenistan, which has significant refining capacity, is also being considered as an alternative fuel source for the region.

Nevertheless, the capabilities of both countries are limited by domestic demand, existing contracts, and logistics, so they can only partially compensate for the reduction in Russian supplies.

The current crisis has been a vivid demonstration for Central Asian countries of the risks of excessive dependence on a single supplier. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and to some extent Uzbekistan have already faced supply disruptions, price increases, and the need to urgently find alternative fuel sources.

Even if the shortage in Russia proves temporary, it will likely accelerate a revision of the energy policies of the region's states. The most probable long-term direction for diversification is China, which is actively expanding transport infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative and has significant refining capacity.

Thus, the Russian fuel crisis is already affecting not only the domestic market of the Russian Federation but also the entire system of regional energy security in Central Asia.