This is stated in the IMF's updated July report "World Economic Outlook" titled "The Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology."
According to the report, China's real GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. Compared to the April forecast, the IMF raised its estimate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points and the forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points.
The IMF noted that China's economy grew by 5% in both 2024 and 2025. However, in 2026, growth is expected to slow amid high oil prices and lingering uncertainty.
"China's growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2026, as higher global oil prices, along with protracted uncertainty and structural challenges, will weigh on economic activity," the fund's report said.
In a broader context, the IMF forecasts growth in developing and emerging market economies to slow to 3.8% in 2026, before recovering to 4.5% in 2027. The report notes that growth prospects vary by country and depend on factors such as commodity dependence, exposure to geopolitical events, remittances and tourism revenues, financial conditions, and participation in global technology supply chains.
China remains the world's second-largest economy and one of the largest drivers of global economic growth, making its performance a key factor shaping global demand for trade, energy, and industrial raw materials. The country's export-oriented economy relies heavily on stable and diversified international transport routes connecting Chinese manufacturers to markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
In recent years, Beijing has increasingly sought to diversify these transport corridors amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, raising the importance of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). This route is part of the broader East-West connectivity network linking China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey.
As China seeks to sustain export growth while diversifying international supply chains, the Middle Corridor continues to gain significance. This assessment broadly aligns with the position of the International Transport Forum (ITF).
The organization stated that the Middle Corridor will retain its strategic role in Eurasian trade, despite possible improvements to alternative routes through Iran.
"Nevertheless, the Middle Corridor will retain strategic value as a diversified route between Asia and Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran. It will continue to enjoy significant political and investment support in the sphere of Eurasian connectivity," the organization noted.