The volume of global merchandise trade increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, despite the conflict in the Middle East, according to a report by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The figure came in higher than the WTO had expected, with the organization calling the growth impressive given that in January-March of the previous year, trade volumes were atypically high due to accelerated stockpiling by American companies ahead of the introduction of higher import tariffs in the US.
The increase in shipments, driven by surging demand for electronic components needed for the development of artificial intelligence systems, offset the negative impact of the military conflict in the Middle East that began in late February, the report noted. The WTO expects the effects of the halt in ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz to be more visible in the results for the second and subsequent quarters.
In the first quarter, exports from Middle Eastern countries fell by 9.7%, while imports to the region dropped by 11.9% year-on-year. Asia saw export growth of 12.9% and import growth of 14.6%. In North America, exports rose by 7%, while imports fell by 10.7%, largely due to a high comparison base. Exports from European countries declined by 2.6%, while imports to the region increased by 0.6%.
The baseline WTO forecast published in March projected that global trade would grow by only 1.9% for the full year 2026. At the time of its preparation, the organization's experts had only limited information on the scale of supply disruptions that the Middle East conflict would cause. Given the observed dynamics, the WTO now expects a more significant reduction in trade flows from Middle Eastern countries by the end of the year, but also stronger growth in Asia and North America amid the AI boom. The global outcome will depend on which factors prevail. The next forecast on global trade volumes will be prepared in October.