The crypto market has shifted from fear to cautious optimism. According to analysts at XWIN Research Japan, confidence is returning amid soft macroeconomic data and positive signals in regulation.
Over the week, Bitcoin rose from around $63,000–64,000 and briefly tested the $65,000–66,000 zone. Then, as experts noted, it retreated due to profit-taking.
What is happening in the market
More important than the price movement itself, according to analysts, is the change in its nature. The rally has gradually shifted from short covering to growth increasingly based on spot demand.
Spot market purchases, as specialists noted, have significantly increased on major exchanges. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETFs again recorded inflows, and long-term holders continued to buy coins from short-term traders.
This, according to experts, indicates that stronger market participants are absorbing supply. However, experts cautioned that spot demand in the US has not fully recovered, and part of the growth still reflects activity in the derivatives market.
Separately, analysts examined investor behavior. According to them, many who survived the June decline are still "acting under the influence of loss aversion and tend to sell at their entry points."
The market's ability to absorb this selling pressure without a noticeable drawdown was called an encouraging sign by experts. It is this, in their opinion, that indicates an improvement in market structure.
What matters next week
Investor sentiment, according to analysts, has noticeably improved. Support came from soft US inflation data, lower rate expectations, rising stock markets, and optimism around cryptocurrency regulation in the US and Japan.
Progress on market structure and stablecoin laws, as specialists emphasized, strengthens the long-term case for digital assets. Nevertheless, they urged keeping optimism in check.
Experts see the main risk in leverage. According to them, its growth without sustained spot demand could increase market volatility.
Next week, analysts advise monitoring three factors: continued ETF inflows, further strengthening of spot demand, and Bitcoin's ability to hold support around $64,000–66,000.
The overall conclusion of experts is caution. In their opinion, the market has improved significantly, but confirmation of a sustained bullish trend will come from constant capital inflows, not just expectations.