The rapidly changing security situation in the Middle East and Eurasia as a whole is increasingly forcing regional states to act more coordinatedly in the face of emerging crises and geopolitical uncertainty. In this context, Serdar Berdimuhamedov's visit is significant not only for the documents signed but also as evidence of the political will in Baku and Ashgabat to move bilateral relations beyond episodic cooperation and form a more comprehensive strategic agenda.
As reported by FinFly, this is stated in an article by Nargiz Mammadova, an analyst at the CASPIA Center.
The talks in Baku covered an exceptionally wide range of issues—from transport and logistics to social protection and environmental cooperation. Such a diversified agenda reflects a growing understanding that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have significant, yet not fully realized, potential for interaction that extends far beyond traditional energy cooperation.
At the heart of bilateral relations lies the Caspian Sea. Historically perceived primarily as a space for energy resources and maritime boundary delimitation, the Caspian is increasingly becoming a dynamic platform for economic integration and regional connectivity. The Turkmen President's call for Azerbaijan's support of the Caspian Environmental Initiative, as well as the proposal to hold a high-level meeting on Caspian Sea issues, indicates a growing understanding that environmental security and sustainable development are becoming crucial components of regional cooperation.
At the same time, the strategic importance of the Caspian today goes far beyond environmental issues. It is increasingly turning into one of the key transport arteries connecting Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe. In this regard, it seems appropriate to further enhance the effectiveness of the Turkmen-Azerbaijani Commission on Transport, Transit, and Logistics. The changing geopolitical landscape has significantly increased the importance of east-west transport corridors, creating new opportunities for both countries.
At the same time, the shallowing of the Caspian Sea is a common problem for all Caspian states and poses direct risks to regional connectivity. The drop in water level limits the cargo capacity of ships and negatively affects the efficiency of maritime freight transport. As a result, despite the fact that cargo flows through the Caspian could theoretically be much higher, the progressive shallowing of the sea is becoming one of the key factors hindering the realization of its full transport and transit potential.
Of particular interest is the initiative to form a Caspian Sea–Black Sea transport corridor along the route Turkmenistan–Azerbaijan–Georgia–Romania. Connecting the Caspian and Black Sea regions opens up significant prospects for expanding economic, trade, and investment cooperation. The implementation of this project will not only diversify transport routes but also significantly strengthen access for Caspian resources and regional trade to global markets.
The President of Turkmenistan specifically highlighted energy, transport, chemical and textile industries, as well as a number of other sectors, as priority areas for cooperation. An equally important outcome of the talks was the agreement to intensify interaction in the formation of east-west transport and transit corridors passing through the territories of both countries. In conditions where global supply chains are increasingly affected by geopolitical factors, such initiatives acquire strategic importance not only for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan but also for the entire system of Eurasian connectivity.
Perhaps the most symbolic evidence of a new stage in bilateral relations was the handover to Turkmenistan of the oil tanker "Dostlug," built at the Baku Shipyard. The vessel, with a deadweight of about 7,800 tons, represents much more than an ordinary commercial project. It demonstrates the emergence of industrial cooperation and the ability of the two states to jointly develop strategic competencies in the Caspian basin.
Equally noteworthy is the existence of an extensive legal and regulatory framework underlying bilateral interaction. To date, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have signed 108 bilateral documents covering a wide range of areas of cooperation and forming a solid institutional foundation for further development of relations. Serdar Berdimuhamedov's visit further expanded this framework through the signing of several new agreements, including a Protocol on Cooperation between the State Customs Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Customs Service of Turkmenistan in the field of customs statistics of mutual trade, as well as a Cooperation Program between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan for 2026–2029.
Economic indicators also point to significant potential for further deepening cooperation. Last year, the volume of transit cargo passing through the territories of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan increased by 15% to reach 2.344 million tons. A vivid example of the intensification of regional transport was the ceremonial arrival on May 12 of this year at the Port of Baku of the first dry cargo ship of Turkmenistan, "Gadamly." The vessel's integration into regular container shipping along the Baku–Turkmenbashi route could significantly stimulate the region's logistics potential.
Trade and economic ties also maintain positive dynamics. Last year, the total trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $208.39 million. From January to April of this year, this figure reached $29.54 million. Despite the relatively modest scale of bilateral trade compared to the economic potential of both countries, the existing indicators point to significant room for further growth, primarily through mutual investments and deepening transport connectivity.
Energy cooperation remains critically important for both countries. Every year, about 4 million tons of Turkmen oil are transported through Azerbaijan, which then reaches global markets via Azerbaijani pipeline infrastructure, primarily the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. Given the appropriate technical capabilities and favorable market conditions, the possibility of increasing these volumes cannot be ruled out. Such interaction expands Turkmenistan's access to international markets while strengthening Azerbaijan's position as one of the key energy and transit hubs of Eurasia.
Ultimately, the significance of the Turkmen President's visit is determined not so much by the immediate results of the signed agreements as by the expectations it has generated. After several years of limited interaction, both countries appear to be demonstrating readiness to build a more substantive and diversified partnership. To what extent this new impetus can transform into concrete strategic results will become clearer in the coming months. In this regard, special attention should be paid to the upcoming meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in Ashgabat, which will be an important indicator of whether the political declarations made in Baku can translate into specific projects and mark a new stage in the development of bilateral relations.